Absolutely—once Advantage+ inventory reaches saturation, frequency caps and creative fatigue will hit ROI long before the compute curve flattens. The safeguard is constant variant refresh and tighter first‑party signals, not betting on endless CPM deflation.
Watch for three signals: (1) blended CPA at least 20 % below your non‑AI control, (2) stable CTR after week‑one novelty wears off, and (3) CPM drift under 5 % week‑over‑week even as spend rises. When two of the three hold for a full optimization cycle, scale.
Early split‑tests show the “AI‑generated” badge nudges CTR by <2 % either way—noise compared to the lift from fresh creative and cheaper CPMs. Quality still trumps provenance.
If Prometheus floods the market with new inventory, could we see a temporary CPM dip followed by inflation once Advantage+ creatives crowd each other out?
Likely: CPMs fall while the new capacity ramps, then creep back once auctions densify; to stay ahead, treat the dip as runway to build stronger creative and first‑party targeting, not a permanent discount.
I expect a 6‑9‑month runway. Once Advantage+ hits roughly a third of impressions the CPM edge will flatten, so move now and plan to re‑balance budgets by early 2026.
I keep the 10 % on a tight leash—AI and non‑AI variants run in parallel, with weekly reallocation to high‑intent retargeting or Google AI Max if labeled assets slip above control CPA. Flexibility beats faith while we wait for the new capacity to land.
Yes—once Advantage+ crosses roughly a third of auction volume the novelty discount erodes and CPMs climb. The play is to bank the early savings, then pivot into fresh formats or tighter audiences before that threshold hits.
Labeling might shave a point off engagement, but the new supply still pushes CPMs down; the real limiter is creative fatigue, not the disclosure badge.
The discount window is short—figure six to twelve months of softer CPMs before Advantage+ crowd‑in and labeling pressure close the gap. After that, only fresh creative and stronger first‑party targeting keep costs in check.
Meta’s hardware push feels like a land grab—do you foresee a tipping point where ad fatigue offsets the extra compute advantage?
Absolutely—once Advantage+ inventory reaches saturation, frequency caps and creative fatigue will hit ROI long before the compute curve flattens. The safeguard is constant variant refresh and tighter first‑party signals, not betting on endless CPM deflation.
Your 10 % test budget sounds smart—what metrics will tell you it’s time to scale before Meta’s subsidy curve flattens?
Watch for three signals: (1) blended CPA at least 20 % below your non‑AI control, (2) stable CTR after week‑one novelty wears off, and (3) CPM drift under 5 % week‑over‑week even as spend rises. When two of the three hold for a full optimization cycle, scale.
Intrigued by the compute equals lower CPMs thesis; any signals yet on how AI asset labels are impacting click through rates?
Early split‑tests show the “AI‑generated” badge nudges CTR by <2 % either way—noise compared to the lift from fresh creative and cheaper CPMs. Quality still trumps provenance.
If Prometheus floods the market with new inventory, could we see a temporary CPM dip followed by inflation once Advantage+ creatives crowd each other out?
Likely: CPMs fall while the new capacity ramps, then creep back once auctions densify; to stay ahead, treat the dip as runway to build stronger creative and first‑party targeting, not a permanent discount.
Great breakdown—does Meta’s open labeling policy risk throttling the very AI creatives that are supposed to drive lower CPMs?
Labeling shaves a couple of points off engagement at most; the real throttle is stale creative. Keep refreshing variants and the CPM savings hold.
The “earmark 5 10 %” advice makes sense now—how quickly do you think that window closes once Advantage+ becomes the default?
I expect a 6‑9‑month runway. Once Advantage+ hits roughly a third of impressions the CPM edge will flatten, so move now and plan to re‑balance budgets by early 2026.
Bold call to shift 10 % of budget to Meta AI; what’s your hedge if the labeling requirement stalls performance before those data centers spin up?
I keep the 10 % on a tight leash—AI and non‑AI variants run in parallel, with weekly reallocation to high‑intent retargeting or Google AI Max if labeled assets slip above control CPA. Flexibility beats faith while we wait for the new capacity to land.
Meta’s Prometheus bet is huge—do you see a point where Advantage+ saturation reverses the CPM savings you’re banking on?
Yes—once Advantage+ crosses roughly a third of auction volume the novelty discount erodes and CPMs climb. The play is to bank the early savings, then pivot into fresh formats or tighter audiences before that threshold hits.
Love the compute driven playbook, but won’t Meta’s ad labeling dampen the CPM slide once every marketer piles into AI variants?
Labeling might shave a point off engagement, but the new supply still pushes CPMs down; the real limiter is creative fatigue, not the disclosure badge.
Fascinated by Meta’s multi gigawatt gambit—how long can cheaper CPMs last once the crowd rushes into Advantage+ formats and disclosure rules kick in?
The discount window is short—figure six to twelve months of softer CPMs before Advantage+ crowd‑in and labeling pressure close the gap. After that, only fresh creative and stronger first‑party targeting keep costs in check.